Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
